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Tail Risk

Performance bottlenecks, and what they cost you when it matters most.

First Principles · July 15, 2026

Two Samplers, Opposite Bets

Trace tail-sampling and LLM temperature look unrelated. They're the same decision about surprise — measured in −log p — optimized in opposite directions. Here's the math, and what to instrument on each side.

Tail Risk · July 1, 2026

Nothing Is Broken. That's the Problem.

Your dashboards are green and your averages look fine — but the tail latency your customers actually feel is invisible until it's a churn risk.